Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions

This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal predictions and projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such has potential meaningful but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Inconsistencies are often most pronounced relatively extreme quantiles of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they generally smaller mostly insignificant close median. The affected North Atlantic, Greenland Northern Europe. Two ways reduce inconsistencies discussed, including a simple calibration method weighting based on model performance. Calibration reduces does not eliminate all them. impact is minor, which found be linked small size prediction ensemble, turn limits applicability method.